Short-term macroeconomic analysis

Objective

Economic analysts seek to forecast economic evolution over the next six to eight months based on an analysis of recent trends and the forces currently acting on the national and international economy.

Having shown the significance of economic analysis and forecasting and the stages involved, the course looks at errors to avoid by observing the recent past: the advantages and dangers of using annual and quarterly information, the elimination of seasonal and random fluctuations. It then examines the problems arising from the use of the data available in France to describe the evolution of the recent and current cycle in various aspects: production and employment, prices and incomes, foreign trade and finance, public finances and money.
The second part of the course presents various forecasting instruments: "leading indexes" (employment offers, orders, stocks etc.) and "diffusion indexes", "economic tests" (description of the INSEE's economic surveys of CEOs and how they should be interpreted), surveys of buying intentions and the behaviour of households.

Finally, we examine the ways in which the trends forecast for each fundamental economic indicator are synthesised, and in particular the link between economic conditions and economic budget. The course ends with a brief application of the methods taught to the current French and international conditions.

Planning

1. Introduction
2. Quantitative synthesis tools
3. Economic surveys and synthetic indicators
4. Imbalances and their resolution
5. Employment conditions
6. Shocks
7. Economic outlook and the financial sphere, economic outlook and public finance

References

- Economic forecasting, N. Carnot, V. Koën, B. Tissot (2011), Palgrave Mac Millan
- Macroéconomie, Blanchard & Cohen (2007), Pearson
- Politique économique, Coeuré et alii (2009), de Boeck